GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?
Probability
28¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 08:03SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at May 13, 21:00 UTC (to 29¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- May 16, 08:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 28¢
- May 16, 07:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 28¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 28¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 28¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 28¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 29¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 29¢
- May 13, 21:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
nuclearReason
Question text contains "nuclear" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:03:44 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +7.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 31, 2026 (2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 14.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.