Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31/markdown.

PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026

Creator

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Probability

26¢

+1.1pp

24h

-11.2pp

24h Vol

$10.6K

Liquidity

$17.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Scanner Market Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=disputed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA DISPUTED

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: disputed
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

UMA status: disputed

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+6.8pp 7d

26¢

May 11, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 05:10 UTC

updated 05:12:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T05-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Down 11pp over 24h
Now 26¢; +1.1pp in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
03
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $17.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: disputed
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

UMA status: disputed

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 306.8h
LOW
05:12Signal
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
LOW

Price movement

-11.2pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.

Biggest hourly move: +32.9pp at May 16, 03:00 UTC (to 52¢).

Show top 8 of 35 hourly moves

May 17, 02:00 UTC · +19.7pp → 39¢
May 16, 23:00 UTC · +22.0pp → 41¢
May 16, 21:00 UTC · +18.9pp → 38¢
May 16, 07:00 UTC · +19.3pp → 37¢
May 16, 06:00 UTC · +21.9pp → 40¢
May 16, 05:00 UTC · +21.7pp → 40¢
May 16, 03:00 UTC · +32.9pp → 52¢
May 16, 02:00 UTC · +23.6pp → 42¢

updated 05:12:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 05:12:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:12:03 GMT, YES is priced at 26% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -11.2pp in the last 24 hours, +1.1pp in the last hour, and +6.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$10.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $431.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket