PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 3, 2026
Creator

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Probability

39¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$14.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Associated Press
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+8.0pp 7d
1007550250
39¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:05 UTC
updated 07:05:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-05Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Nov 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4048.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.

Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at May 13, 20:00 UTC (to 38¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 38¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 38¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 38¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 38¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 38¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 38¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 38¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 38¢
updated 07:05:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:05:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNebraska Senate Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

senate

Reason

Question text contains "senate" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:05:17 GMT, YES is priced at 39% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +8.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 3, 2026 (2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

19 wallets
Open on Polymarket