PoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?

Probability

11¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (15.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-20.6pp 7d
1007550250
11¢
May 11, 2026, 16:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 15:20 UTC
updated 15:20:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T15-20Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 15.1¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1016.7h

    LOW
  • 15:20Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.

Biggest hourly move: -17.9pp at May 14, 14:00 UTC (to 13¢).

Show top 8 of 41 hourly moves
  • May 14, 14:00 UTC · -17.9pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 12:00 UTC · -17.4pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 10:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · -17.6pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · -17.6pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 13¢
updated 15:20:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 15:20:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual provides testimony about Jeffrey Epstein before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying testimony may be either live or recorded, in-person or remote, and closed or open to the public. A primary focus of the testimony must be information related to Jeffrey Epstein, including but not limited to the listed individuals’ relationship with Epstein, their appearance in Epstein-related files released by the federal government, their involvement in previous Epstein investigations or criminal proceedings, or their general knowledge of Epstein and his life. Limited references to Epstein in an otherwise unrelated congressional testimony will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

epstein

Reason

Epstein-case markets — DOJ / FBI / Congressional record release. Politics, not Unclassified.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 15:20:22 GMT, YES is priced at 11% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -20.6pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 15.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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