PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2027
Creator

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Probability

5¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$9.5K

Liquidity

$77.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
interieur.gouv.fr
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:03 UTC
updated 06:03:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $9.5k traded against $77.0k of visible liquidity (0.12× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Apr 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 8321.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

updated 06:03:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:03:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNext French Presidential Election
Category · Politics

Market Description

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:03:14 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Apr 30, 2027 (2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$9.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.0M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $77.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket