PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 4, 2026
Creator

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.7pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$7.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
dadosabertos.tse.jus.br
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.7pp 7d
1007550250
7¢
May 11, 2026, 11:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 10:07 UTC
updated 10:07:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T10-07Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $7.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Oct 4, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3325.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: +15.0pp at May 14, 16:00 UTC (to 19¢).

Show top 8 of 23 hourly moves
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · -11.5pp → 8¢
  • May 17, 03:00 UTC · -13.9pp → 8¢
  • May 17, 02:00 UTC · -10.8pp → 8¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · -12.7pp → 7¢
  • May 15, 05:00 UTC · -10.3pp → 8¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · +10.0pp → 14¢
  • May 14, 16:00 UTC · +15.0pp → 19¢
  • May 14, 13:00 UTC · +14.0pp → 19¢
updated 10:07:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 10:07:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Category · Politics

Market Description

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:07:33 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Oct 4, 2026 (2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

17 wallets
Open on Polymarket