GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Probability

12¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$13.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
1007550250
12¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:01 UTC
updated 06:02:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-02Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5442.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at May 15, 11:00 UTC (to 16¢).

Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
  • 02:00 · -4.0pp → 12¢
  • 00:00 · -4.0pp → 12¢
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 14¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 14¢
  • May 16, 07:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 14¢
  • May 16, 00:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 15¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 16¢
  • May 15, 11:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 16¢
updated 06:02:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:02:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

iran

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "iran" — matched the Geopolitics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:02:02 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $80.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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