GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Probability

23¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$6.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.5pp 7d
1007550250
23¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:00 UTC
updated 07:00:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 11.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5441.0h

    LOW
  • 07:00Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.

Biggest hourly move: +9.0pp at May 15, 08:00 UTC (to 28¢).

Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
  • May 15, 18:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 27¢
  • May 15, 17:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 27¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 28¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 28¢
  • May 15, 11:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 28¢
  • May 15, 10:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 28¢
  • May 15, 08:00 UTC · +9.0pp → 28¢
  • May 15, 05:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 28¢
updated 07:00:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:00:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

ukraine

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ukraine" — matched the Geopolitics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:00:48 GMT, YES is priced at 23% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +1.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $41.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket