Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?
Probability
92¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$897.30
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $897 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4046.2h
Price movement
-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.
Biggest hourly move: +38.3pp at May 15, 05:00 UTC (to 97¢).
Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -10.3pp → 86¢
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · -28.3pp → 68¢
- May 16, 23:00 UTC · -25.8pp → 71¢
- May 16, 21:00 UTC · -13.8pp → 83¢
- May 16, 18:00 UTC · -17.4pp → 78¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -20.7pp → 74¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · -10.4pp → 83¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · +38.3pp → 97¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, passes according to Nevada election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Question 6 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Nevada, this market will resolve immediately to "No." If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Nevada, specifically the Nevada Secretary of State (https://www.nvsos.gov).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
general electionReason
Election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:45:27 GMT, YES is priced at 92% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -4.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 3, 2026 (2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $362.28. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $897.30. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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