Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?
Probability
17¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$28.10
Liquidity
$3.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 17¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 303.0h
- 09:02SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.
Biggest hourly move: +6.5pp at 06:00 (to 20¢).
Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
- 06:00 · +6.5pp → 20¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 14¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 14¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 14¢
- May 16, 19:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 14¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 16¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 16¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individuals in one or more of the following categories between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The covered categories are: - Any individual who previously served as an investigator, special counsel, prosecutor, district attorney, attorney general, or equivalent official investigative or prosecutorial role in any criminal investigation or prosecution of Donald Trump. - Any current or former United States Senator or United States Representative who was elected as a member of the Democratic Party or who caucused with the Democratic Party while serving in Congress. - Any individual who served in a presidentially-appointed role in the federal government during the administration of President Joe Biden. - Any of the following individuals: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Liz Cheney, Marjorie-Taylor Greene, John Bolton, Kamala Harris, Anthony Fauci, Michael Cohen. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
indictmentReason
Indictment markets — Politics (DOJ / state-AG activity), not Unclassified.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:02:56 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and -5.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$28.10 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 12.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.